Discipline, penalties and turnovers
Discipline is an untrainable player skill that runs from rebellious to flawless. This study measures what each level costs you in penalties and what it wins you in turnovers, and works out the rate at which one is traded for the other. It then checks the two things that could change that answer: the position your player starts in, and the discipline of the pack you put him up against.
The data
season 61, all league matches from division 1 and 2Every completed league match of division 1 and of both division 2 leagues, in all 34 countries, for the whole of season 61. Nothing is sampled. Player lines and lineup slots come from the classic API, so a player's position is the one on the team sheet. A full game means a starter still on the field at 70 minutes or more, which keeps every rate on this page comparable and leaves replacements out. 5,632 full games by players who have since quit are dropped, because their skills can no longer be read. The table below shows how the 135,150 remaining games split across the five levels.
| Discipline | Player performances | Share of all | Distinct players |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebellious (1) | 9,330 | 6.9% | 1,102 |
| Reckless (2) | 28,238 | 20.9% | 3,453 |
| Collected (3) | 50,286 | 37.2% | 6,359 |
| Controlled (4) | 34,746 | 25.7% | 4,352 |
| Flawless (5) | 12,550 | 9.3% | 1,554 |
| All | 135,150 | 100% | 16,820 |
Level by level
forwards, backs and every player, at each of the five levels| Group | Discipline | Player performances | Penalties / game | × Flawless | Turnovers / game | × Flawless | Turnover share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards (1–8) | Rebellious (1) | 4,568 | 1.83 | 6.06× | 0.79 | 2.67× | 30% |
| Reckless (2) | 13,994 | 1.36 | 4.49× | 0.65 | 2.19× | 32% | |
| Collected (3) | 27,202 | 0.91 | 3.00× | 0.49 | 1.65× | 35% | |
| Controlled (4) | 19,011 | 0.48 | 1.60× | 0.37 | 1.27× | 44% | |
| Flawless (5) | 7,032 | 0.30 | 1.00× | 0.30 | 1.00× | 49% | |
| Backs (9–15) | Rebellious (1) | 4,762 | 0.73 | 7.77× | 0.46 | 3.05× | 39% |
| Reckless (2) | 14,244 | 0.50 | 5.30× | 0.37 | 2.45× | 43% | |
| Collected (3) | 23,084 | 0.31 | 3.29× | 0.27 | 1.80× | 47% | |
| Controlled (4) | 15,735 | 0.15 | 1.61× | 0.20 | 1.32× | 57% | |
| Flawless (5) | 5,518 | 0.09 | 1.00× | 0.15 | 1.00× | 62% | |
| Every player | Rebellious (1) | 9,330 | 1.27 | 6.02× | 0.62 | 2.68× | 33% |
| Reckless (2) | 28,238 | 0.92 | 4.38× | 0.51 | 2.19× | 36% | |
| Collected (3) | 50,286 | 0.63 | 3.00× | 0.39 | 1.67× | 38% | |
| Controlled (4) | 34,746 | 0.33 | 1.58× | 0.30 | 1.27× | 47% | |
| Flawless (5) | 12,550 | 0.21 | 1.00× | 0.23 | 1.00× | 52% |
What it shows. Penalties and turnovers both rise as discipline falls, because discipline is really how hard a player contests the ball. They do not rise together. A rebellious forward wins 2.7 times a flawless one's turnovers and concedes 6.1 times the penalties. That is why the turnover share column climbs from 30% to 49% as you read down each group: the disciplined player contests less, but more of those contests are successful.
Everything by position
one row per slot, then forwards, backs and every player| Position started | All players in that position | Penalties conceded per full game, by discipline | Turnovers won per full game, by discipline | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player performances | Mean discipline | Pens / game | Turnovers / game | Turnover share | Rebellious | Reckless | Collected | Controlled | Flawless | Rebellious | Reckless | Collected | Controlled | Flawless | |
| 1 Loosehead prop | 8,598 | 3.15 | 0.78 | 0.58 | 43% | 1.60 | 1.22 | 0.78 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 0.81 | 0.73 | 0.58 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| 2 Hooker | 8,816 | 3.16 | 0.70 | 0.34 | 32% | 1.53 | 1.09 | 0.71 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| 3 Tighthead prop | 8,710 | 3.07 | 0.74 | 0.29 | 28% | 1.50 | 1.08 | 0.76 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| 4 Lock | 9,432 | 3.04 | 0.78 | 0.33 | 29% | 1.55 | 1.14 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.59 | 0.43 | 0.32 | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| 5 Lock | 9,024 | 3.08 | 0.78 | 0.32 | 29% | 1.62 | 1.13 | 0.80 | 0.41 | 0.23 | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| 6 Blindside flanker | 9,170 | 3.19 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 39% | 2.36 | 1.74 | 1.10 | 0.57 | 0.35 | 1.16 | 0.95 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
| 7 Openside flanker | 9,204 | 3.25 | 1.14 | 0.77 | 40% | 2.43 | 1.92 | 1.24 | 0.64 | 0.40 | 1.37 | 1.09 | 0.78 | 0.57 | 0.48 |
| 8 No. 8 | 8,853 | 3.17 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 36% | 2.31 | 1.70 | 1.09 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.59 | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| 9 Scrum-half | 8,828 | 3.09 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 34% | 0.62 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| 10 Fly-half | 9,420 | 3.03 | 0.41 | 0.24 | 37% | 0.84 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.41 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| 11 Wing | 8,709 | 3.06 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 50% | 0.76 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.51 | 0.40 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| 12 Inside centre | 9,042 | 3.03 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 44% | 0.86 | 0.59 | 0.37 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.49 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| 13 Outside centre | 9,178 | 2.98 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 46% | 0.87 | 0.61 | 0.37 | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0.56 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| 14 Wing | 8,748 | 3.06 | 0.32 | 0.27 | 46% | 0.69 | 0.48 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.42 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| 15 Fullback | 9,418 | 3.08 | 0.19 | 0.37 | 66% | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.05 | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| Forwards (1–8) | 71,807 | 3.14 | 0.88 | 0.49 | 36% | 1.83 | 1.36 | 0.91 | 0.48 | 0.30 | 0.79 | 0.65 | 0.49 | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| Backs (9–15) | 63,343 | 3.05 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 46% | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| All | 135,150 | 3.10 | 0.62 | 0.39 | 39% | 1.27 | 0.92 | 0.63 | 0.33 | 0.21 | 0.62 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.23 |
What it shows. Position sets the base rate and discipline multiplies it. A flanker concedes over one penalty a game before discipline is considered, a fullback 0.19. The multiplier is about 6 times for a forward and 8 for a back, much the same wherever you play him. The two effects stack rather than cancel. A rebellious openside concedes 2.43 penalties a game. A flawless fullback concedes 0.05.
Does the pack you face change your players?
it changes how much your players do, not how they do it| Row | Player performances | Mean discipline of the pack they faced | Change across the range | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | |||
| Do your penalties change? A little | |||||||
| Rebellious (1) | 9,288 | 1.21 | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.32 | +0.11 |
| Reckless (2) | 28,125 | 0.84 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.93 | +0.09 |
| Collected (3) | 50,139 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.68 | +0.13 |
| Controlled (4) | 34,653 | 0.26 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.36 | +0.11 |
| Flawless (5) | 12,519 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.22 | -0.02 |
| Do your turnovers change? A little | |||||||
| Rebellious (1) | 9,288 | 0.58 | 0.61 | 0.60 | 0.63 | 0.72 | +0.14 |
| Reckless (2) | 28,125 | 0.44 | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.52 | +0.08 |
| Collected (3) | 50,139 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.43 | +0.11 |
| Controlled (4) | 34,653 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.31 | 0.31 | +0.05 |
| Flawless (5) | 12,519 | 0.20 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.24 | +0.04 |
| Where that comes from: the match got longer | |||||||
| Rucks in the match, both teams | 134,724 | 76 | 80 | 84 | 89 | 92 | +16 |
| The test: turnover share. Strip the match length out and nothing moves | |||||||
| Rebellious (1) | 9,288 | 32% | 33% | 32% | 33% | 35% | +3.0pp |
| Reckless (2) | 28,125 | 34% | 35% | 36% | 36% | 36% | +1.6pp |
| Collected (3) | 50,139 | 37% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 39% | +1.5pp |
| Controlled (4) | 34,653 | 51% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 46% | -4.1pp |
| Flawless (5) | 12,519 | 46% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 53% | +6.7pp |
What it shows. The opponent changes how much your players do, not how they do it. Both counts climb against a better disciplined pack, because that pack leaves your ball alone and the match simply runs longer: 76 rucks against a pack of 2.0, 92 against one of 4.0. The penalty shift is about the same for everyone, +0.11 a game for a rebellious player and +0.11 for a controlled one, and a constant shift whoever the player is looks like more rugby rather than a change in conduct. Turnover share is a ratio of the two counts, so match length cancels out of it. It does not move.
Where it is thin. The 2.0 column carries the fewest performances at every level: 240 for rebellious and 332 for flawless, against 20,434 in the middle of the table. That is where the −4.1pp and +6.7pp in the last block come from. They point in opposite directions, which is what noise looks like.
Conclusions
The slot you put a player in sets how many penalties he gives away. His discipline then multiplies that number. So the same reckless player is cheap at fullback and ruinous at openside flanker.
- Position sets the base rate. Before discipline is considered at all, an openside concedes 1.14 penalties a game, a number 8 1.07 and a blindside 1.06. A hooker concedes 0.70, the least of any forward. A fullback concedes 0.19.
- Discipline then multiplies that base. About 6 times from rebellious to flawless for a forward and 8 for a back, and much the same factor wherever you play him.
- So the loose forwards are where discipline matters most. They have the highest base rate and the same multiplier, so every step down the scale costs more there than anywhere else on the field. Among the forwards it matters least at hooker and tighthead, which start at 0.70 and 0.74.
- Hide your worst discipline in the back line. The same skill level costs 0.87 extra penalties a game in the pack and only 0.35 in the back line. Wing and fullback are the cheapest slots on the field.
- That is a wide spread to control. A rebellious openside concedes 2.43 penalties a game. A flawless fullback concedes 0.05.
- Do not pick a reckless player for his turnovers. He does win more, at about 2.7 penalties each.
- Controlled is enough. A controlled forward keeps 58% of the turnovers a reckless one wins, for 36% of the penalties. Flawless gives up contest for little further gain.
- Scout the opposition's discipline for possession, not for penalties. Across the whole range of packs you might face it moves your own players by about 0.09 penalties a game, which is nothing. Change the team sheet for the fixture by all means, but not for this. What their pack does decide is your ball retention: a reckless one contests your rucks harder so you keep less of your own ball, and your own pack's discipline does not protect it.